Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Jan-Lennard Struff
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Jan-Lennard Struff
Estimated games
25.7
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Jan-Lennard Struff
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
1–0
Jan-Lennard Struff
(1 last)
- 24 Apr2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1596 · Jan-Lennard Struff 1522
| Alex Michelsen | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1596 vs 1522).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6 aces and 50.3% break avg.
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 14.9 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 1–0 Jan-Lennard Struff (1).
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (2) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-10.6 | 16.6-17.5 |
| Aces | 6 | 14.9 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 76.9% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7
H2H · Alex Michelsen 1 – 0 Jan-Lennard Struff (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 1–0 Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Jan-Lennard Struff?
Our model gives 67% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.