Tennis · ATP Montreal · 10/08, 17:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Arthur Fils
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Arthur Fils
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Arthur Fils
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rafael Jodar
1–1
Arthur Fils
(2 last)
- 28 Jul2-0 13-9W
- 18 Apr1-2 11-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1583 · Arthur Fils 1552
| Rafael Jodar | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.8-11.8 | 12.9-10.3 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 79.4% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 38.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
H2H · Rafael Jodar 1 – 1 Arthur Fils (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Jodar 1–1 Arthur Fils
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/26 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/04/26 ATP Barcelona | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-22 | W |
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 30/06 | Raphael Collignon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/04 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 52% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.