We're not tipsters: we give you the data. Our own model (Elo + Poisson) analyses football, basketball, handball and tennis, and compares its probability with the market odds.You get the data; the decision is yours.
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Figures updated with every model run.
1X2, Over/Under, BTTS probabilities and the most likely score for every match, with the model favourite.
See analysis →Cross up to 500 matches per sport with filters for goals, corners, cards, form, handicap and the O/U line; in tennis, aces, sets and surface.
See statistics →The matches where the model has the clearest read against the market, ordered by confidence.
See recommendations →The model's highest-confidence forecasts, with their recent hit record so you can judge reliability.
See high probability →Spot live the matches where the script isn't playing out: a favourite in trouble, goals not coming.
See live →Keys, model vs market, Elo rating, H2H, league standings, common opponents and odds movement.
See a match page →Every advanced metric explained in one line on hover. Understand what you see without leaving the page.
See the glossary →Pro filters, synced favourites, daily "My watchlist", market movement and CSV export.
See Premium →Predictions and stats are free; the day's first 3 recommendations too. Premium unlocks all of them plus the advanced analysis tools.
Sample cards with our probabilities versus the market odds.
Poisson/Dixon-Coles with attack and defence per team.
Opponent-adjusted Elo and pace of play.
ASOBAL and Champions coverage, hard to find elsewhere.
Elo by surface: clay, hard, grass and carpet.
Filter up to 500 matches per sport and find real patterns: goal averages, corners, cards, form, handicap and the O/U line. In tennis: aces, sets won and surface performance. Every metric comes with its built-in explanation.
A daily selection of the forecasts the model is most sure about, with their recent hit record. "High probability according to the model" is not a guarantee: risk never disappears.
A daily selection of the matches where the model is most confident — not a long list of tips.
High probability usually means a short-priced favourite. We show the odds so you judge the real value, not just the %.
Each selection comes with how the model has been doing lately. "High probability" is never a guarantee: the risk stays.
Our engine does not use raw averages: it combines opponent-adjusted Elo, Poisson/Dixon-Coles with attack and defence, and surface Elo in tennis. That way it estimates its own probabilities and compares them with the market.
We gather results, stats and Bet365 odds for the next 7 days across the 4 sports.
Opponent-adjusted Elo + Poisson/Dixon-Coles (attack/defence). In tennis, Elo by surface: clay, hard, grass and carpet.
We anchor our probability to the real 1X2 and show you where we agree and where we differ from the market.
Every card leads to a full page with the keys to the game, the model's probabilities versus the market, the Elo rating, the head-to-head, the recent history of both, the league standings, common opponents and how the odds have moved since the line opened.
A unique radar: it spots in real time the matches where the script isn't playing out (a favourite in trouble, goals not coming) with a 'Reaction margin' thermometer from 0 to 100. It's an observation, not a betting recommendation.
Example of the live radar. When there are matches in play, you will see each one here with its own thermometer.
The betting market is very efficient and no model wins all the time. That's why we don't sell 'safe' picks: we compare our probability with the market's match by match —even when we agree and there's no value— and we publish the model's real performance once the sample is reliable.
Visible on every match. You'll see our probability and the one implied by the odds, side by side.
Open → close, transparent. The market movement (CLV) is the best judge of a forecast.
Real hit rate, average odds, profit and yield by sport on already-settled value bets, at flat stake. We publish it as it is —also when it does not help. See the track record →
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Our educational blog explains the key concepts with no hype: what value is, how to read odds, what Elo measures and why no model wins all the time.
The concept that separates betting with criteria from betting blind, with examples.
Read →Convert odds into probability and understand the house margin in 2 minutes.
Read →Why beating a strong rival is worth more than beating a weak one.
Read →What the O/U line means and how our goals model estimates it.
Read →BetsTalent is an informational and statistical tool. It is not a bookmaker and does not guarantee profits. Gamble responsibly. If you think you may have a gambling problem, find help at jugarbien.es. (RD 958/2020).
