Tennis · ATP Montreal · 13/08, 00:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
6-4 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1615 · Brandon Nakashima 1604
| Rafael Jodar | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 13 aces and 47.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-10.5 | 16.4-13.2 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 13 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 82.4% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-20 | L |
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 31-31 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 59% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.