Tennis · ATP Montreal · 14/08, 02:00
Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
8-2 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
5–0
Brandon Nakashima
(5 last)
- 02 Aug2-1 19-15W
- 12 Mar2-0 13-7W
- 14 Jan3-0 21-16W
- 01 Aug2-0 14-12W
- 05 Apr2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1598 · Brandon Nakashima 1614
| Ben Shelton | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 12.9 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 5–0 Brandon Nakashima (5).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.9-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.5-12.4 | 15.7-12.8 |
| Aces | 7.6 | 12.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 81.8% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5
H2H · Ben Shelton 5 – 0 Brandon Nakashima (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 5–0 Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/25 ATP Toronto | 2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 12/03/25 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/01/25 Australian Open | 3-0 | 21-16 | W |
| 01/08/24 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/04/24 ATP Houston | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Ugo Humbert ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 28/07 | Martin Damm ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 19/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 31-31 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 58% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.