Frequently asked questions

BetsTalent is a stats and predictions tool for football, basketball, handball and tennis. We are not tipsters: we build our own statistical model (opponent-adjusted Elo + Poisson/Dixon-Coles) and show you how it reaches every number, comparing it with the market price. The decision to bet, and how much, is always yours.

Predictions, basic stats and the day's first 3 recommendations are free. Premium (€9.90/mo) unlocks all the day's recommendations and adds advanced filters, syncing, favourites watchlist and CSV export, ad-free.

Each day we publish the first 3 recommendations in full for free, with their selection, odds and model probability. The rest are reserved for Premium. The results history and in-play matches are always open, so you can check performance before deciding.

Football, basketball, handball and tennis. In football we use a Poisson/Dixon-Coles model with attack and defence; in basketball and handball we combine opponent-adjusted Elo with pace; in tennis we keep separate Elo ratings by surface (clay, hard, grass and carpet).

There is value when the real probability of an outcome is higher than the one implied by the odds. We calculate that probability with our model and compare it with the market odds. Value existing does not guarantee winning: it only means that, in the long run, the odds compensate the risk.

By dividing 1 by the odds. Odds of 2.00 imply 50% (1 ÷ 2.00). The sum of all probabilities exceeds 100%: that excess is the house margin. You'll find more definitions in our glossary.

"Over 2.5" wins with 3 or more goals in the match; "Under 2.5", with 2 or fewer. We show the goals expected by our model for each match, next to the line offered by the market.

BTTS ("both teams to score") is the football market where you bet on whether both teams score at least one goal. "Yes" wins when both score; "No" when at least one is kept scoreless. Our model estimates that probability from each team's expected goals.

Yield is profit over amount staked, as a percentage. If across 100 bets of 1 unit you win 5 net units, your yield is 5%. It's the right way to measure long-term performance, better than counting hits alone, because it accounts for the odds of each bet.

It is a rating system that measures the strength of each team or player based on who they have played. Beating a strong rival raises it more than beating a weak one, so it reflects real level better than simple averages. That rating anchors the base strength of our model across all sports.

For each match we show, market by market, our model's probability next to the one implied by the Bet365 odds. If our probability is higher than the market's, there is value on that selection; if it's lower, the price is expensive. We also show the odds movement (open → close), because how the market moves is one of the best judges of a prediction.

No. The market is very efficient and nobody wins all the time. Statistics and models help you decide with criteria and spot value, but they don't remove the risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Because they don't exist. The betting market is very efficient and no model wins every time. Instead of promising certainties, we show our probability next to the market's —even when they agree and there is no edge— and we publish the model's real performance on already-settled bets, so you can judge for yourself. The data is ours to give; the decision is always yours.

For adults only (18+). Betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. If you think you may have a gambling problem, find help at jugarbien.es.