Tennis · ATP Montreal · 10/08, 22:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Learner Tien
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Learner Tien
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
9-1 (W-L)
Learner Tien
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1597 · Learner Tien 1534
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1597 vs 1534).
- Daniel Merida Aguilar is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Learner Tien makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (4) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-8.5 | 15.3-14.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.1% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Learner Tien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 15/06 | Max Schoenhaus ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Facundo Diaz Acosta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien?
Our model gives 53% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.