Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia

Team pages: AEK Larnaca · Omonia Nicosia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

AEK Larnaca1.16

Omonia Nicosia1.38

1X2

31% 29% 41%

AEK Larnaca Draw Omonia Nicosia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AEK Larnaca 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLWWD

Omonia Nicosia 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWDWW

Head-to-head

AEK Larnaca 1–2–3 Omonia Nicosia (6 last)

Omonia Nicosia1-1AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca0-2Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia2-1AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca1-1Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia1-0AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca2-1Omonia Nicosia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AEK Larnaca 1564 · Omonia Nicosia 1626

	AEK Larnaca	Draw	Omonia Nicosia
Our model	30%	29%	41%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Omonia Nicosia (rating 1564 vs 1626).
H2H favours Omonia Nicosia: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AEK Larnaca	Omonia Nicosia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	2.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.7 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +2’	3.00	3.30	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AEK Larnaca 1–2–3 Omonia Nicosia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Cyprus Division 1	Omonia Nicosia	1-1 HT 0-1	AEK Larnaca
14/04/26 Cyprus Division 1	AEK Larnaca	0-2 HT 0-1	Omonia Nicosia
14/01/26 Cyprus Cup	Omonia Nicosia	2-1 HT 2-0	AEK Larnaca
15/12/25 Cyprus Division 1	AEK Larnaca	1-1 HT 0-1	Omonia Nicosia
17/09/25 Cyprus Division 1	Omonia Nicosia	1-0 HT 0-0	AEK Larnaca
07/05/25 Cyprus Cup	AEK Larnaca	2-1 HT 1-1	Omonia Nicosia

Standings · Cyprus Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEL Limassol	6	5	0	1	10	8	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
3	Apollon Limassol	6	3	3	0	14	8	12
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
5	Pafos FC	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
6	Aris Limassol	6	2	3	1	7	8	9
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
8	Apoel Nicosia	5	2	1	2	12	8	7
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	1	3	2	4	6	6
10	Nea Salamis Famagusta	6	1	1	4	11	15	4
11	Olympiakos Nicosia	5	0	4	1	8	9	4
12	Krasava ENY Ypsonas	6	1	0	5	5	14	3
13	Anorthosis Famagusta	6	1	0	5	4	13	3
14	APK Karmotissa	6	0	3	3	4	11	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AEK Larnaca	Omonia Nicosia
Aris Limassol	1-1 D	4-1 W
Omonia Aradippou	1-0 W	0-0 D
Pafos FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Apoel Nicosia	3-1 W	3-0 W
Apollon Limassol	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Omonia Nicosia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AEK Larnaca

WDDWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
12/10	Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/09	Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
13/09	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
29/08	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	4-3	1	5	W
16/05	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
06/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-0	5	10	W

Omonia Nicosia

WWDWWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	0-0	3-0	10	5	W
20/09	Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1	1-1	4-1	13	5	W
12/09	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
07/09	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
31/08	Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
22/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-1	5-2	6	4	W
16/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
10/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
06/05	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
02/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	2-0	3-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Omonia Nicosia win (41%). Probabilities: AEK Larnaca 31%, draw 29%, Omonia Nicosia 41%.

How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia?

The model expects 2.54 goals (AEK Larnaca 1.16 · Omonia Nicosia 1.38), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.