Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: AEL Limassol vs Aris Limassol

Team pages: AEL Limassol · Aris Limassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

AEL Limassol1.32

Aris Limassol1.5

1X2

32% 27% 40%

AEL Limassol Draw Aris Limassol

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AEL Limassol 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWWWW

Aris Limassol 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWDWD

Head-to-head

AEL Limassol 2–1–3 Aris Limassol (6 last)

AEL Limassol2-2Aris Limassol
AEL Limassol2-1Aris Limassol
Aris Limassol0-1AEL Limassol
Aris Limassol4-0AEL Limassol
Aris Limassol4-0AEL Limassol
AEL Limassol0-3Aris Limassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AEL Limassol 1572 · Aris Limassol 1495

	AEL Limassol	Draw	Aris Limassol
Our model	32%	27%	40%
Market	32%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEL Limassol (rating 1572 vs 1495).
H2H favours Aris Limassol: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AEL Limassol	Aris Limassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	2.5 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +2’	2.88	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AEL Limassol 2–1–3 Aris Limassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Europe Friendlies	AEL Limassol	2-2 HT 1-2	Aris Limassol
01/02/26 Cyprus Division 1	AEL Limassol	2-1 HT 0-1	Aris Limassol
21/01/26 Cyprus Cup	Aris Limassol	0-1 HT 0-0	AEL Limassol
19/10/25 Cyprus Division 1	Aris Limassol	4-0 HT 0-0	AEL Limassol
23/02/25 Cyprus Division 1	Aris Limassol	4-0 HT 1-0	AEL Limassol
24/11/24 Cyprus Division 1	AEL Limassol	0-3 HT 0-1	Aris Limassol

Standings · Cyprus Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEL Limassol	6	5	0	1	10	8	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
3	Apollon Limassol	6	3	3	0	14	8	12
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
5	Pafos FC	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
6	Aris Limassol	6	2	3	1	7	8	9
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
8	Apoel Nicosia	5	2	1	2	12	8	7
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	1	3	2	4	6	6
10	Nea Salamis Famagusta	6	1	1	4	11	15	4
11	Olympiakos Nicosia	5	0	4	1	8	9	4
12	Krasava ENY Ypsonas	6	1	0	5	5	14	3
13	Anorthosis Famagusta	6	1	0	5	4	13	3
14	APK Karmotissa	6	0	3	3	4	11	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AEL Limassol	Aris Limassol
Pafos FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Apoel Nicosia	0-6 L	1-0 W
Olympiakos Nicosia	1-3 L	2-1 W
Krasava ENY Ypsonas	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aris Limassol (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AEL Limassol

LDLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
11/10	Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 1	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
18/09	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
11/09	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-1	1	11	W
06/09	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-2	0-6	0	6	L
30/08	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
15/05	Akritas Chlorakas Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
09/05	Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
02/05	Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
27/04	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	0-1	0-1	8	7	L

Aris Limassol

WLLLDLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
11/10	Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
20/09	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
14/09	Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
07/09	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-4	2	4	L
29/08	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	5	8	D
22/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-1	3-4	3	5	L
16/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-3	2-3	7	2	L
10/05	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	0-1	0-2	10	6	L
06/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AEL Limassol vs Aris Limassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aris Limassol win (40%). Probabilities: AEL Limassol 32%, draw 27%, Aris Limassol 40%.

How many goals are expected in AEL Limassol vs Aris Limassol?

The model expects 2.81 goals (AEL Limassol 1.32 · Aris Limassol 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AEL Limassol vs Aris Limassol?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.