Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Apollon Limassol vs Pafos FC

Team pages: Apollon Limassol · Pafos FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Apollon Limassol1.44

Pafos FC1.17

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Apollon Limassol Draw Pafos FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Apollon Limassol 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDDWWW

Pafos FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWLWDD

Head-to-head

Apollon Limassol 3–1–2 Pafos FC (6 last)

Apollon Limassol0-2Pafos FC
Apollon Limassol2-1Pafos FC
Pafos FC1-1Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol2-1Pafos FC
Pafos FC0-1Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol0-2Pafos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Apollon Limassol 1533 · Pafos FC 1546

	Apollon Limassol	Draw	Pafos FC
Our model	42%	29%	30%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Apollon Limassol: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Apollon Limassol	Pafos FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +27’	2.20	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Apollon Limassol 3–1–2 Pafos FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Cyprus Cup	Apollon Limassol	0-2 HT 0-0	Pafos FC
03/05/26 Cyprus Division 1	Apollon Limassol	2-1 HT 2-1	Pafos FC
22/03/26 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Apollon Limassol
04/01/26 Cyprus Division 1	Apollon Limassol	2-1 HT 1-1	Pafos FC
13/09/25 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Apollon Limassol
07/05/25 Cyprus Cup	Apollon Limassol	0-2 HT 0-0	Pafos FC

Standings · Cyprus Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEK Larnaca	7	5	1	1	13	5	16
2	Apollon Limassol	7	4	3	0	19	8	15
3	AEL Limassol	7	5	0	2	11	11	15
4	Omonia Nicosia	7	3	3	1	13	6	12
5	Pafos FC	7	3	3	1	7	3	12
6	Aris Limassol	7	3	3	1	10	9	12
7	Apoel Nicosia	7	3	2	2	16	9	11
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
9	Anorthosis Famagusta	7	2	0	5	6	13	6
10	Olympiakos Nicosia	7	0	6	1	11	12	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	1	3	3	4	8	6
12	Nea Salamis Famagusta	7	1	2	4	11	15	5
13	Krasava ENY Ypsonas	7	1	1	5	6	15	4
14	APK Karmotissa	7	0	3	4	4	16	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Apollon Limassol	Pafos FC
APK Karmotissa	5-0 W	3-0 W
Nea Salamis Famagusta	4-2 W	0-0 D
Apoel Nicosia	2-2 D	0-0 D
Anorthosis Famagusta	3-1 W	3-1 W
Aris Limassol	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Apollon Limassol (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Apollon Limassol

WWLDWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	2-0	5-0	12	4	W
17/10	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	3-2	4-2	5	10	W
10/10	Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
19/09	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
12/09	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
05/09	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
29/08	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	3	8	D
22/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-5	4	4	L
16/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	3-0	3-2	1	2	W
10/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	6	W

Pafos FC

WDWWDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
19/10	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
11/10	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
18/09	AEL Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
13/09	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/09	Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
30/08	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
22/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
10/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Apollon Limassol vs Pafos FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Apollon Limassol win (42%). Probabilities: Apollon Limassol 42%, draw 28%, Pafos FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Apollon Limassol vs Pafos FC?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Apollon Limassol 1.44 · Pafos FC 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Apollon Limassol vs Pafos FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.