Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Workington vs Ashton Utd

Team pages: Workington · Ashton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Workington1.76

Ashton Utd1.44

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Workington Draw Ashton Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Workington 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDLLWW

Ashton Utd 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLLLL

Head-to-head

Workington 2–2–2 Ashton Utd (6 last)

Ashton Utd2-1Workington
Workington1-1Ashton Utd
Workington5-1Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd3-0Workington
Ashton Utd2-2Workington
Workington5-0Ashton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Workington 1552 · Ashton Utd 1448

	Workington	Draw	Ashton Utd
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Workington (rating 1552 vs 1448).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Workington	Ashton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	11/33/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:08 +5’	2.00	3.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Workington 2–2–2 Ashton Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-1 HT 0-0	Workington
23/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-1	Ashton Utd
26/04/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	5-1 HT 2-1	Ashton Utd
24/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	3-0 HT 1-0	Workington
16/12/23 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-2 HT 1-1	Workington
12/08/23 England Northern Premier League	Workington	5-0 HT 4-0	Ashton Utd

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Workington	Ashton Utd
Quorn	0-3 L	2-2 D
Warrington Town	2-2 D	0-1 L
Cleethorpes Town	1-1 D	0-1 L
Leek Town	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Workington (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Workington

WWWWDDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
17/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
13/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
06/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-2	1	3	D
03/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
29/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
12/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W

Ashton Utd

LLLDDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
31/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-3	3	2	L
17/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
13/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
10/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
28/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	10	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Workington vs Ashton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Workington win (44%). Probabilities: Workington 44%, draw 25%, Ashton Utd 31%.

How many goals are expected in Workington vs Ashton Utd?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Workington 1.76 · Ashton Utd 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Workington vs Ashton Utd?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.