Football · England Northern Premier League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Gainsborough vs Lancaster City

Team pages: Gainsborough · Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Gainsborough2.02

Lancaster City1.33

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Gainsborough Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gainsborough 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Lancaster City 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gainsborough 2–1–3 Lancaster City (6 last)

Lancaster City3-0Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City1-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-2Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-1Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-0Lancaster City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gainsborough 1488 · Lancaster City 1469

	Gainsborough	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lancaster City: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gainsborough	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.5	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:07 +4’	1.70	3.90	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainsborough 2–1–3 Lancaster City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	3-0	Gainsborough
23/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-0 HT 0-0	Lancaster City
14/12/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	1-2	Gainsborough
07/09/24 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-2 HT 1-0	Lancaster City
06/04/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-1	Gainsborough
04/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-0 HT 0-0	Lancaster City

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	18	11	5	2	41	19	38
2	Curzon Ashton	18	12	1	5	32	18	37
3	Cleethorpes Town	17	11	3	3	34	10	36
4	Guiseley	16	10	3	3	34	16	33
5	Warrington Rylands	17	9	3	5	31	24	30
6	Workington	18	9	3	6	31	27	30
7	Bury	16	9	2	5	32	18	29
8	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
9	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
10	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
11	Alfreton Town	18	7	2	9	23	25	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	17	5	6	6	33	35	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Stockton Town	18	5	3	10	26	31	18
17	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
18	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
19	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
20	Ilkeston	18	4	1	13	13	38	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	18	2	5	11	18	42	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gainsborough	Lancaster City
Curzon Ashton	0-3 L	0-2 L
Warrington Town	2-1 W	2-2 D
Ilkeston	3-1 W	2-1 W
Emley AFC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Whitby	6-2 W	2-1 W
Avro FC	0-2 L	3-5 L
Cleethorpes Town	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gainsborough (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gainsborough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-3	1-3	9	6	L
31/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	13	2	L
24/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
17/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
13/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
10/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-2	10	0	W
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L

Lancaster City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
17/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
13/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-5	3	1	L
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gainsborough vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainsborough win (53%). Probabilities: Gainsborough 53%, draw 23%, Lancaster City 24%.

How many goals are expected in Gainsborough vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Gainsborough 2.02 · Lancaster City 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gainsborough vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.