Football · England Northern Premier League · 11/11, 20:45

Prediction: Avro FC vs Whitby

Team pages: Avro FC · Whitby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

Avro FC2.46

Whitby1.5

1X2

58% 20% 22%

Avro FC Draw Whitby

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Avro FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Whitby 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avro FC 1498 · Whitby 1445

	Avro FC	Draw	Whitby
Our model	58%	20%	22%
Market	58%	20%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avro FC (rating 1498 vs 1445).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avro FC	Whitby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.2 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	0.8 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +2’	1.55	4.50	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	16	11	3	2	34	9	36
2	Redcar Athletic	17	10	5	2	37	19	35
3	Curzon Ashton	17	11	1	5	31	18	34
4	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
5	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
6	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
7	Warrington Rylands	16	9	2	5	30	23	29
8	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
9	Workington	17	8	3	6	28	27	27
10	Bury	15	8	2	5	31	18	26
11	Alfreton Town	17	7	2	8	23	22	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	16	5	6	5	31	32	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
17	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
18	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
19	Stockton Town	17	4	3	10	23	29	15
20	Ilkeston	17	4	1	12	13	37	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	17	2	5	10	18	38	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avro FC	Whitby
Lancaster City	5-3 W	1-2 L
Gainsborough	2-0 W	2-6 L
FC United of Manchester	4-3 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Avro FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avro FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
03/11	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	4	D
31/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-2	2	2	W
17/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
10/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W

Whitby

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
24/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-4	2	2	L
17/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-6	3	0	L
29/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
12/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	1	W
31/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avro FC vs Whitby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avro FC win (58%). Probabilities: Avro FC 58%, draw 20%, Whitby 22%.

How many goals are expected in Avro FC vs Whitby?

The model expects 3.96 goals (Avro FC 2.46 · Whitby 1.5), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Avro FC vs Whitby?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.