Football · England Northern Premier League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Ilkeston vs FC United of Manchester

Team pages: Ilkeston · FC United of Manchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Ilkeston1.31

FC United of Manchester1.7

1X2

29% 25% 46%

Ilkeston Draw FC United of Manchester

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilkeston 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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FC United of Manchester 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ilkeston 2–2–2 FC United of Manchester (6 last)

Ilkeston3-2FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester2-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston1-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester1-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston2-0FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester1-0Ilkeston

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1411 · FC United of Manchester 1483

	Ilkeston	Draw	FC United of Manchester
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC United of Manchester (rating 1411 vs 1483).
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilkeston	FC United of Manchester
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 4	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +9’	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilkeston 2–2–2 FC United of Manchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	3-2	FC United of Manchester
29/11/25 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-1 HT 1-0	Ilkeston
12/04/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-1 HT 1-1	FC United of Manchester
17/08/24 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-1 HT 0-0	Ilkeston
06/01/24 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	2-0	FC United of Manchester
22/08/23 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-0 HT 1-0	Ilkeston

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	18	11	5	2	41	19	38
2	Curzon Ashton	18	12	1	5	32	18	37
3	Cleethorpes Town	17	11	3	3	34	10	36
4	Guiseley	16	10	3	3	34	16	33
5	Warrington Rylands	17	9	3	5	31	24	30
6	Workington	18	9	3	6	31	27	30
7	Bury	16	9	2	5	32	18	29
8	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
9	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
10	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
11	Alfreton Town	18	7	2	9	23	25	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	17	5	6	6	33	35	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Stockton Town	18	5	3	10	26	31	18
17	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
18	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
19	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
20	Ilkeston	18	4	1	13	13	38	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	18	2	5	11	18	42	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilkeston	FC United of Manchester
Curzon Ashton	0-1 L	0-1 L
Avro FC	2-0 W	3-4 L
Redcar Athletic	0-5 L	2-3 L
Lancaster City	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC United of Manchester (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilkeston

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
07/11	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
06/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L

FC United of Manchester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
31/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	10	2	D
24/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	8	2	W
13/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
10/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs FC United of Manchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC United of Manchester win (46%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 29%, draw 25%, FC United of Manchester 46%.

How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs FC United of Manchester?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Ilkeston 1.31 · FC United of Manchester 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs FC United of Manchester?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.