Football · England National League North · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Southport vs Radcliffe FC

Team pages: Southport · Radcliffe FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Southport1.65

Radcliffe FC1.33

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Southport Draw Radcliffe FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Southport 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLWLDL

Radcliffe FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Southport 3–2–1 Radcliffe FC (6 last)

Radcliffe FC1-2Southport
Southport2-0Radcliffe FC
Southport3-2Radcliffe FC
Radcliffe FC1-1Southport
Radcliffe FC4-1Southport
Southport2-2Radcliffe FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southport 1469 · Radcliffe FC 1427

	Southport	Draw	Radcliffe FC
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southport (rating 1469 vs 1427).
H2H favours Southport: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southport	Radcliffe FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +8’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 3–2–1 Radcliffe FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League North	Radcliffe FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Southport
25/11/25 England National League North	Southport	2-0 HT 0-0	Radcliffe FC
16/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Southport	3-2 HT 1-1	Radcliffe FC
13/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Radcliffe FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Southport
08/02/25 England National League North	Radcliffe FC	4-1 HT 2-0	Southport
07/09/24 England National League North	Southport	2-2 HT 0-2	Radcliffe FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
5	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
6	Kings Lynn Town	11	6	1	4	21	15	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	5	3	3	16	19	18
8	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
9	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
10	Buxton	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
11	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
12	Hednesford	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
13	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
14	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
15	Worksop	11	5	0	6	12	17	15
16	Brackley	11	4	3	4	13	20	15
17	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	3	5	3	13	12	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
20	Radcliffe FC	11	3	0	8	13	21	9
20	Southport	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
22	AFC Telford	11	2	3	6	9	17	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southport	Radcliffe FC
Morecambe	2-1 W	2-1 W
Hereford FC	0-1 L	0-3 L
Scarborough Athletic	1-5 L	4-1 W
Bedford Town	4-1 W	0-1 L
Hednesford	2-2 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Southport (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southport

DDWLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
12/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
15/08	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

Radcliffe FC

LLWLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
26/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-3	1-4	3	5	L
12/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
08/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	3-1	5-1	10	4	W
05/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
29/08	Marine England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
22/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
18/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
15/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southport vs Radcliffe FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southport win (44%). Probabilities: Southport 44%, draw 26%, Radcliffe FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Southport vs Radcliffe FC?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Southport 1.65 · Radcliffe FC 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Southport vs Radcliffe FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.