Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: South Shields vs Chester

Team pages: South Shields · Chester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

South Shields1.68

Chester1.5

1X2

41% 26% 33%

South Shields Draw Chester

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

South Shields 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Chester 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

South Shields 4–2 Chester (6 last)

Chester1-3South Shields
South Shields4-0Chester
South Shields2-0Chester
Chester1-0South Shields
Chester0-1South Shields
South Shields0-1Chester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Shields 1550 · Chester 1505

	South Shields	Draw	Chester
Our model	41%	25%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Shields (rating 1550 vs 1505).
H2H favours South Shields: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Shields	Chester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +16’	2.20	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Shields 4–0–2 Chester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League North	Chester	1-3 HT 0-0	South Shields
23/08/25 England National League North	South Shields	4-0 HT 1-0	Chester
08/02/25 England National League North	South Shields	2-0 HT 1-0	Chester
07/09/24 England National League North	Chester	1-0 HT 1-0	South Shields
23/03/24 England National League North	Chester	0-1 HT 0-0	South Shields
25/11/23 England National League North	South Shields	0-1 HT 0-1	Chester

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Shields	Chester
Buxton	4-0 W	1-3 L
Hereford FC	0-6 L	1-1 D
Spalding United	1-1 D	1-0 W
Merthyr Town	1-1 D	0-1 L
Morecambe	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: South Shields (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Shields

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Macclesfield England National League North	3-2	3-4	4	6	L
29/09	Brackley England National League North	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
26/09	Buxton England National League North	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
12/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
31/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
18/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	2-1	15	2	W

Chester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
26/09	Worksop England National League North	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
12/09	Buxton England National League North	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
15/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	2-0	2-0	11	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Shields vs Chester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Shields win (41%). Probabilities: South Shields 41%, draw 26%, Chester 33%.

How many goals are expected in South Shields vs Chester?

The model expects 3.19 goals (South Shields 1.68 · Chester 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in South Shields vs Chester?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.