Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hednesford vs Spalding United

Team pages: Hednesford · Spalding United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Hednesford1.5

Spalding United1.08

1X2

47% 27% 27%

Hednesford Draw Spalding United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hednesford 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDLWLWWW

Spalding United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hednesford 1526 · Spalding United 1512

	Hednesford	Draw	Spalding United
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hednesford	Spalding United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +23’	1.91	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hednesford	Spalding United
South Shields	0-1 L	1-1 D
Spennymoor Town	1-1 D	3-1 W
Southport	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Spalding United (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hednesford

DDWDLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Brackley England National League North	3-1	3-2	3	5	W
10/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	4-1	8	5	W
12/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
08/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/08	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/08	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-2	3	3	D

Spalding United

LDLWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/09	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
08/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
05/09	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
31/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	Worksop England National League North	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
22/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
15/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hednesford vs Spalding United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hednesford win (47%). Probabilities: Hednesford 47%, draw 27%, Spalding United 27%.

How many goals are expected in Hednesford vs Spalding United?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Hednesford 1.5 · Spalding United 1.08), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hednesford vs Spalding United?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.