Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Telford vs Hebburn Town

Team pages: AFC Telford · Hebburn Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

AFC Telford1.62

Hebburn Town1.26

1X2

45% 27% 29%

AFC Telford Draw Hebburn Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Telford 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWDLLW

Hebburn Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWDLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Telford 1481 · Hebburn Town 1462

	AFC Telford	Draw	Hebburn Town
Our model	45%	27%	29%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Telford	Hebburn Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +7’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Telford	Hebburn Town
Darlington 1883	2-1 W	1-1 D
Kings Lynn Town	0-5 L	4-2 W
Oxford City	1-0 W	0-3 L
Scarborough Athletic	1-0 W	0-2 L
Hednesford	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Telford (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Telford

DDLLWWDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
12/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
08/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-2	3	3	D

Hebburn Town

WWWLDLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
10/10	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Hednesford England National League North	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
08/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-3	1-5	5	4	L
05/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
29/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-2	4-2	5	2	W
22/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
18/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Telford vs Hebburn Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Telford win (45%). Probabilities: AFC Telford 45%, draw 27%, Hebburn Town 29%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Telford vs Hebburn Town?

The model expects 2.88 goals (AFC Telford 1.62 · Hebburn Town 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Telford vs Hebburn Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.