Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Morecambe

Team pages: Merthyr Town · Morecambe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Merthyr Town1.21

Morecambe1.23

1X2

36% 28% 37%

Merthyr Town Draw Morecambe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Merthyr Town 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

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Morecambe 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1487 · Morecambe 1507

	Merthyr Town	Draw	Morecambe
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merthyr Town	Morecambe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +2’	2.45	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merthyr Town	Morecambe
Chester	1-0 W	1-0 W
Buxton	1-2 L	4-0 W
South Shields	1-1 D	0-1 L
AFC Telford	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Morecambe (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merthyr Town

DDDLWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
26/09	Marine England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D

Morecambe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
26/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
08/09	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Buxton England National League North	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
31/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/08	AFC Telford England National League North	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
18/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Morecambe win (37%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 36%, draw 28%, Morecambe 37%.

How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Merthyr Town 1.21 · Morecambe 1.23), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.