Football · England National League North · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Macclesfield

Team pages: Merthyr Town · Macclesfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Merthyr Town1.27

Macclesfield1.77

1X2

27% 25% 49%

Merthyr Town Draw Macclesfield

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Merthyr Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Macclesfield 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Merthyr Town 1–1 Macclesfield (2 last)

Merthyr Town1-2Macclesfield
Macclesfield1-3Merthyr Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1470 · Macclesfield 1586

	Merthyr Town	Draw	Macclesfield
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	27%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macclesfield (rating 1470 vs 1586).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merthyr Town	Macclesfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.75

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +4’	3.30	3.75	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Merthyr Town 1–0–1 Macclesfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England National League North	Merthyr Town	1-2 HT 0-0	Macclesfield
02/09/25 England National League North	Macclesfield	1-3 HT 0-0	Merthyr Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	6	5	1	0	10	3	16
2	Hereford FC	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
3	Oxford City	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Chester	6	4	1	1	7	3	13
5	Hebburn Town	6	4	1	1	11	8	13
6	Harborough Town	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
7	South Shields	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
8	Buxton	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
9	Scarborough Athletic	6	3	0	3	14	10	9
10	Bedford Town	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Spalding United	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
12	Chorley	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
13	Morecambe	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
14	Kings Lynn Town	6	2	1	3	9	12	7
15	Merthyr Town	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
16	Marine	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
17	Hednesford	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
18	Darlington 1883	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
19	Worksop	6	2	0	4	5	10	6
20	Brackley	5	1	2	2	6	8	5
21	Southport	6	1	2	3	9	13	5
22	Spennymoor Town	6	1	2	3	6	13	5
23	Radcliffe FC	6	1	0	5	3	11	3
24	AFC Telford	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merthyr Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Hednesford England National League North	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	1-0	2-4	3	3	L
18/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
14/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
11/04	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	14	8	L

Macclesfield

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
22/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
15/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
08/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/05	Kidderminster England National League North	0-2	1-3	7	7	L
29/04	Chester England National League North	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
25/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
21/04	Southport England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Macclesfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Macclesfield win (49%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 27%, draw 25%, Macclesfield 49%.

How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Macclesfield?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Merthyr Town 1.27 · Macclesfield 1.77), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Macclesfield?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.