Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Kings Lynn Town vs Chorley

Team pages: Kings Lynn Town · Chorley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Kings Lynn Town1.54

Chorley1.36

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Kings Lynn Town Draw Chorley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kings Lynn Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLWWL

Chorley 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDDLW

Head-to-head

Kings Lynn Town 1–2–3 Chorley (6 last)

Kings Lynn Town1-1Chorley
Chorley4-0Kings Lynn Town
Chorley1-0Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town0-0Chorley
Chorley2-1Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town1-0Chorley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kings Lynn Town 1478 · Chorley 1491

	Kings Lynn Town	Draw	Chorley
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chorley: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kings Lynn Town	Chorley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:21 +1’	2.20	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kings Lynn Town 1–2–3 Chorley

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	1-1 HT 0-1	Chorley
25/08/25 England National League North	Chorley	4-0 HT 1-0	Kings Lynn Town
29/04/25 England National League North	Chorley	1-0 HT 0-0	Kings Lynn Town
05/04/25 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Chorley
02/11/24 England National League North	Chorley	2-1 HT 2-0	Kings Lynn Town
09/04/24 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Chorley

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kings Lynn Town	Chorley
Darlington 1883	2-0 W	5-2 W
Scarborough Athletic	3-1 W	2-1 W
Marine	1-4 L	2-0 W
Brackley	2-0 W	2-2 D
Chester	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chorley (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kings Lynn Town

DDDLWLLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
05/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
31/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
29/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	4	2	L
22/08	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-4	6	3	L
18/08	Brackley England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	Chester England National League North	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
08/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
25/04	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
18/04	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

Chorley

DWLLWWDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	South Shields England National League North	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
08/08	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
25/04	Worksop England National League North	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
18/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kings Lynn Town vs Chorley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kings Lynn Town win (41%). Probabilities: Kings Lynn Town 41%, draw 27%, Chorley 32%.

How many goals are expected in Kings Lynn Town vs Chorley?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Kings Lynn Town 1.54 · Chorley 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kings Lynn Town vs Chorley?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.