Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Hereford FC vs South Shields

Team pages: Hereford FC · South Shields

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Hereford FC1.1

South Shields1.37

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Hereford FC Draw South Shields

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hereford FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDWWW

South Shields 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Hereford FC 3–1–2 South Shields (6 last)

Hereford FC2-1South Shields
South Shields2-1Hereford FC
South Shields0-1Hereford FC
Hereford FC3-0South Shields
Hereford FC0-3South Shields
South Shields0-0Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hereford FC 1597 · South Shields 1554

	Hereford FC	Draw	South Shields
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hereford FC (rating 1597 vs 1554).
H2H favours Hereford FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hereford FC	South Shields
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +2’	2.90	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hereford FC 3–1–2 South Shields

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-1 HT 0-0	South Shields
18/10/25 England National League North	South Shields	2-1 HT 1-0	Hereford FC
04/02/25 England National League North	South Shields	0-1 HT 0-0	Hereford FC
10/08/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	3-0 HT 1-0	South Shields
30/01/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-3 HT 0-2	South Shields
07/10/23 England National League North	South Shields	0-0 HT 0-0	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hereford FC	South Shields
Marine	1-0 W	2-1 W
Buxton	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: South Shields (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hereford FC

WDLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
15/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
08/08	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
25/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
21/04	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	9	6	W

South Shields

LWLWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
31/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
18/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	2-1	15	2	W
08/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
09/05	Kidderminster England National League North	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
02/05	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/04	Kidderminster England National League North	0-0	0-1	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hereford FC vs South Shields?

According to our model, the most likely result is an South Shields win (43%). Probabilities: Hereford FC 30%, draw 27%, South Shields 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hereford FC vs South Shields?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Hereford FC 1.1 · South Shields 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hereford FC vs South Shields?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.