Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town

Team pages: Scarborough Athletic · Merthyr Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Scarborough Athletic1.73

Merthyr Town1.21

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Scarborough Athletic Draw Merthyr Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Scarborough Athletic 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWLLD

Merthyr Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Scarborough Athletic 2–0 Merthyr Town (2 last)

Scarborough Athletic2-1Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town1-3Scarborough Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Scarborough Athletic 1472 · Merthyr Town 1495

	Scarborough Athletic	Draw	Merthyr Town
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Scarborough Athletic: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Scarborough Athletic	Merthyr Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +8’	1.83	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Scarborough Athletic 2–0–0 Merthyr Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	2-1 HT 0-1	Merthyr Town
25/08/25 England National League North	Merthyr Town	1-3 HT 1-0	Scarborough Athletic

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Scarborough Athletic	Merthyr Town
Macclesfield	0-0 D	2-1 W
AFC Telford	0-1 L	2-2 D
Chorley	1-2 L	1-1 D
Spennymoor Town	3-0 W	1-2 L
Hednesford	4-3 W	2-0 W
South Shields	0-1 L	1-1 D
Buxton	2-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Merthyr Town (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Scarborough Athletic

DLLWWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
05/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
31/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
29/08	Southport England National League North	3-0	5-1	5	1	W
22/08	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
18/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
15/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	4-3	3	6	W
08/08	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
28/04	Buxton England National League North	0-0	2-4	7	4	L
25/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	8	1	D

Merthyr Town

LLWLDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Hednesford England National League North	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	1-0	2-4	3	3	L
18/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Scarborough Athletic win (49%). Probabilities: Scarborough Athletic 49%, draw 25%, Merthyr Town 26%.

How many goals are expected in Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Scarborough Athletic 1.73 · Merthyr Town 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.