Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Worksop vs Southport

Team pages: Worksop · Southport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Worksop1.63

Southport1.3

1X2

44% 26% 29%

Worksop Draw Southport

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Worksop 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLWL

Southport 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWLLLW

Head-to-head

Worksop 1–1–0 Southport (2 last)

Southport1-1Worksop
Worksop2-0Southport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worksop 1486 · Southport 1483

	Worksop	Draw	Southport
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worksop	Southport
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.5	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:16 +5’	2.00	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worksop 1–1–0 Southport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League North	Southport	1-1 HT 1-0	Worksop
23/08/25 England National League North	Worksop	2-0 HT 0-0	Southport

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worksop	Southport
Bedford Town	1-2 L	4-1 W
Spalding United	1-3 L	0-2 L
Hereford FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Hebburn Town	0-1 L	1-3 L
AFC Telford	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Southport (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worksop

WLWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
05/09	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
22/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/04	Chorley England National League North	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
18/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	6-0	8-0	10	2	W

Southport

LWLDDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
15/08	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
25/04	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
21/04	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worksop vs Southport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worksop win (44%). Probabilities: Worksop 44%, draw 26%, Southport 29%.

How many goals are expected in Worksop vs Southport?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Worksop 1.63 · Southport 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Worksop vs Southport?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.