Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Spennymoor Town vs Macclesfield

Team pages: Spennymoor Town · Macclesfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Spennymoor Town1.09

Macclesfield1.6

1X2

25% 26% 48%

Spennymoor Town Draw Macclesfield

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Spennymoor Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLLDLL

Macclesfield 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWWLD

Head-to-head

Spennymoor Town 1–1–0 Macclesfield (2 last)

Macclesfield0-2Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town0-0Macclesfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spennymoor Town 1444 · Macclesfield 1555

	Spennymoor Town	Draw	Macclesfield
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macclesfield (rating 1444 vs 1555).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spennymoor Town	Macclesfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +16’	3.50	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spennymoor Town 1–1–0 Macclesfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League North	Macclesfield	0-2 HT 0-2	Spennymoor Town
25/08/25 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Macclesfield

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spennymoor Town	Macclesfield
Spalding United	1-3 L	0-0 D
Scarborough Athletic	0-3 L	0-0 D
Merthyr Town	2-1 W	1-2 L
Marine	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Macclesfield (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spennymoor Town

WDDWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
29/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L
18/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
15/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
18/04	Macclesfield England National League North	2-0	2-0	8	2	W

Macclesfield

WLWWDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
31/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
22/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
15/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
08/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/05	Kidderminster England National League North	0-2	1-3	7	7	L
29/04	Chester England National League North	0-1	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spennymoor Town vs Macclesfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Macclesfield win (48%). Probabilities: Spennymoor Town 25%, draw 26%, Macclesfield 48%.

How many goals are expected in Spennymoor Town vs Macclesfield?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Spennymoor Town 1.09 · Macclesfield 1.6), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spennymoor Town vs Macclesfield?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.