Football · England National League North · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Southport vs Hereford FC

Team pages: Southport · Hereford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Southport1.59

Hereford FC1.54

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Southport Draw Hereford FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Southport 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDDWL

Hereford FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWWWD

Head-to-head

Southport 3–1–2 Hereford FC (6 last)

Southport5-1Hereford FC
Hereford FC1-2Southport
Hereford FC1-1Southport
Southport1-4Hereford FC
Southport1-2Hereford FC
Hereford FC0-1Southport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southport 1505 · Hereford FC 1531

	Southport	Draw	Hereford FC
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Southport: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southport	Hereford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.52 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.62

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +3’	2.25	3.40	2.63
17:04 +5’	2.35▲	3.40	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:07 +1’	2.52	3.34	2.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 3–1–2 Hereford FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League North	Southport	5-1 HT 2-0	Hereford FC
08/11/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Southport
18/01/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Southport
24/08/24 England National League North	Southport	1-4 HT 1-1	Hereford FC
24/02/24 England National League North	Southport	1-2 HT 0-1	Hereford FC
02/09/23 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Southport

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hebburn Town	5	4	1	0	11	5	13
2	Chester	5	4	1	0	7	2	13
3	Macclesfield	5	4	1	0	7	3	13
4	Hereford FC	5	3	1	1	9	3	10
5	Oxford City	5	3	1	1	9	5	10
6	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
7	Scarborough Athletic	5	3	0	2	13	7	9
8	Harborough Town	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
9	Spalding United	5	2	1	2	5	3	7
10	Chorley	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
11	Buxton	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
12	Merthyr Town	5	1	3	1	7	6	6
13	Marine	5	2	0	3	6	5	6
14	Bedford Town	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
15	Worksop	5	2	0	3	5	9	6
16	Hednesford	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
17	Southport	5	1	2	2	9	12	5
18	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
18	Morecambe	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
20	Kings Lynn Town	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
21	Spennymoor Town	5	1	1	3	5	12	4
22	Darlington 1883	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
23	Radcliffe FC	5	1	0	4	3	10	3
24	AFC Telford	5	0	2	3	6	9	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southport	Hereford FC
Bedford Town	4-1 W	2-2 D
Buxton	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southport (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southport

WLLLWLDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
15/08	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
25/04	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
21/04	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
11/04	Leamington England National League North	1-2	1-2	0	5	L
06/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	6	W

Hereford FC

DLWWDLWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
15/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
08/08	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
25/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
21/04	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	3-1	3	11	W
14/04	Oxford City England National League North	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
11/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	2-2	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southport vs Hereford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southport win (38%). Probabilities: Southport 38%, draw 26%, Hereford FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Southport vs Hereford FC?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Southport 1.59 · Hereford FC 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Southport vs Hereford FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.