Football · England National League North · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Telford vs Oxford City

Team pages: AFC Telford · Oxford City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

AFC Telford1.32

Oxford City1.35

1X2

35% 28% 37%

AFC Telford Draw Oxford City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Telford 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDDLLW

Oxford City 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

AFC Telford 1–1–0 Oxford City (2 last)

Oxford City0-0AFC Telford
AFC Telford4-0Oxford City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Telford 1453 · Oxford City 1524

	AFC Telford	Draw	Oxford City
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford City (rating 1453 vs 1524).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Telford	Oxford City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +5’	2.50	3.25	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Telford 1–1–0 Oxford City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League North	Oxford City	0-0 HT 0-0	AFC Telford
25/11/25 England National League North	AFC Telford	4-0 HT 1-0	Oxford City

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	7	5	1	1	14	5	16
2	Hereford FC	7	5	1	1	12	4	16
3	Macclesfield	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
4	Chester	7	4	2	1	8	4	14
5	South Shields	6	4	2	0	7	3	14
6	Hebburn Town	7	4	2	1	12	9	14
7	Bedford Town	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
8	Spalding United	7	3	2	2	8	4	11
9	Harborough Town	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
10	Morecambe	7	3	1	3	9	6	10
11	Kings Lynn Town	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
12	Buxton	7	3	1	3	10	13	10
13	Scarborough Athletic	7	3	0	4	14	11	9
14	Merthyr Town	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
15	Worksop	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
16	Brackley	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
17	Chorley	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
18	Marine	7	2	0	5	7	8	6
19	Hednesford	7	1	3	3	9	12	6
20	Darlington 1883	7	2	0	5	8	13	6
21	AFC Telford	7	1	2	4	7	10	5
22	Southport	7	1	2	4	9	15	5
23	Spennymoor Town	7	1	2	4	7	15	5
24	Radcliffe FC	7	1	0	6	3	12	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Telford	Oxford City
Bedford Town	0-1 L	1-0 W
Worksop	1-2 L	1-0 W
Darlington 1883	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Oxford City (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Telford

WDLLLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
25/04	Southport England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
18/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
11/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-1	3-2	6	4	W

Oxford City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Chorley England National League North	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	10	W
18/04	Chester England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
14/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	2-1	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Telford vs Oxford City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oxford City win (37%). Probabilities: AFC Telford 35%, draw 28%, Oxford City 37%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Telford vs Oxford City?

The model expects 2.68 goals (AFC Telford 1.32 · Oxford City 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Telford vs Oxford City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.