Football · England National League North · 08/09, 20:45
Prediction: Chester vs Merthyr Town
Team pages: Chester · Merthyr Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Chester1.72
Merthyr Town0.8
1X2
Chester
Draw
Merthyr Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Chester
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Merthyr Town
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chester
1–1–0
Merthyr Town
(2 last)
- Merthyr Town1-2Chester
- Chester2-2Merthyr Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chester 1564 · Merthyr Town 1487
| Chester | Draw | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chester (rating 1564 vs 1487).
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chester | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chester 1–1–0 Merthyr Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England National League North | Merthyr Town | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Chester |
| 04/10/25 England National League North | Chester | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Merthyr Town |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford City | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Hereford FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chester | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | South Shields | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Hebburn Town | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Bedford Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Harborough Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Kings Lynn Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 12 | Buxton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 13 | Scarborough Athletic | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 | Merthyr Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 15 | Worksop | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 16 | Brackley | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 17 | Chorley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
| 18 | Marine | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 19 | Hednesford | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
| 20 | Darlington 1883 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
| 21 | AFC Telford | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 22 | Southport | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 5 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 5 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chester | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Macclesfield | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Morecambe England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Hereford FC England National League North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Spalding United England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/08 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Chorley England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Oxford City England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Merthyr Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Buxton England National League North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Chorley England National League North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | South Shields England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/08 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Marine England National League North |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chester vs Merthyr Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chester win (58%). Probabilities: Chester 58%, draw 25%, Merthyr Town 16%.
How many goals are expected in Chester vs Merthyr Town?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Chester 1.72 · Merthyr Town 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chester vs Merthyr Town?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.