Football · England National League North · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Chorley vs Darlington 1883

Team pages: Chorley · Darlington 1883

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Chorley1.66

Darlington 18831.3

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Chorley Draw Darlington 1883

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorley 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWDDL

Darlington 1883 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Chorley 4–1–1 Darlington 1883 (6 last)

Chorley1-2Darlington 1883
Darlington 18832-3Chorley
Darlington 18831-1Chorley
Chorley3-0Darlington 1883
Darlington 18830-3Chorley
Chorley8-0Darlington 1883

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorley 1452 · Darlington 1883 1419

	Chorley	Draw	Darlington 1883
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chorley: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorley	Darlington 1883
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.2	1.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:21 +33’	2.00	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorley 4–1–1 Darlington 1883

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England National League North	Chorley	1-2 HT 1-2	Darlington 1883
09/08/25 England National League North	Darlington 1883	2-3 HT 2-1	Chorley
25/03/25 England National League North	Darlington 1883	1-1 HT 1-1	Chorley
22/10/24 England National League North	Chorley	3-0 HT 2-0	Darlington 1883
29/03/24 England National League North	Darlington 1883	0-3 HT 0-1	Chorley
14/11/23 England National League North	Chorley	8-0 HT 3-0	Darlington 1883

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	7	5	1	1	14	5	16
2	Hereford FC	7	5	1	1	12	4	16
3	Macclesfield	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
4	Chester	7	4	2	1	8	4	14
5	South Shields	6	4	2	0	7	3	14
6	Hebburn Town	7	4	2	1	12	9	14
7	Bedford Town	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
8	Spalding United	7	3	2	2	8	4	11
9	Harborough Town	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
10	Morecambe	7	3	1	3	9	6	10
11	Kings Lynn Town	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
12	Buxton	7	3	1	3	10	13	10
13	Scarborough Athletic	7	3	0	4	14	11	9
14	Merthyr Town	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
15	Worksop	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
16	Brackley	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
17	Chorley	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
18	Marine	7	2	0	5	7	8	6
19	Hednesford	7	1	3	3	9	12	6
20	Darlington 1883	7	2	0	5	8	13	6
21	AFC Telford	7	1	2	4	7	10	5
22	Southport	7	1	2	4	9	15	5
23	Spennymoor Town	7	1	2	4	7	15	5
24	Radcliffe FC	7	1	0	6	3	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorley	Darlington 1883
Oxford City	0-4 L	1-3 L
Marine	2-0 W	2-3 L
Chester	1-2 L	0-1 L
Worksop	2-1 W	1-2 L
Kings Lynn Town	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Chorley (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorley

LDWLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	South Shields England National League North	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
08/08	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
25/04	Worksop England National League North	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
18/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
11/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	8	L

Darlington 1883

LDLLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Harborough Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	2	0	L
18/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
08/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
25/04	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	1-3	11	10	L
18/04	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
11/04	Marine England National League North	1-2	2-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorley vs Darlington 1883?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chorley win (45%). Probabilities: Chorley 45%, draw 26%, Darlington 1883 29%.

How many goals are expected in Chorley vs Darlington 1883?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Chorley 1.66 · Darlington 1883 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorley vs Darlington 1883?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.