Football · England National League North · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Worksop vs Bedford Town

Team pages: Worksop · Bedford Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Worksop1.43

Bedford Town1.14

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Worksop Draw Bedford Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Worksop 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLLW

Bedford Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Worksop 1–1 Bedford Town (2 last)

Bedford Town0-2Worksop
Worksop0-2Bedford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worksop 1519 · Bedford Town 1492

	Worksop	Draw	Bedford Town
Our model	43%	29%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worksop	Bedford Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.5	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:49 +4’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worksop 1–0–1 Bedford Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 England National League North	Bedford Town	0-2 HT 0-1	Worksop
04/10/25 England National League North	Worksop	0-2 HT 0-1	Bedford Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	7	5	1	1	14	5	16
2	Hereford FC	7	5	1	1	12	4	16
3	Macclesfield	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
4	Chester	7	4	2	1	8	4	14
5	South Shields	6	4	2	0	7	3	14
6	Hebburn Town	7	4	2	1	12	9	14
7	Bedford Town	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
8	Spalding United	7	3	2	2	8	4	11
9	Harborough Town	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
10	Morecambe	7	3	1	3	9	6	10
11	Kings Lynn Town	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
12	Buxton	7	3	1	3	10	13	10
13	Scarborough Athletic	7	3	0	4	14	11	9
14	Merthyr Town	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
15	Worksop	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
16	Brackley	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
17	Chorley	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
18	Marine	7	2	0	5	7	8	6
19	Hednesford	7	1	3	3	9	12	6
20	Darlington 1883	7	2	0	5	8	13	6
21	AFC Telford	7	1	2	4	7	10	5
22	Southport	7	1	2	4	9	15	5
23	Spennymoor Town	7	1	2	4	7	15	5
24	Radcliffe FC	7	1	0	6	3	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worksop	Bedford Town
Oxford City	0-1 L	0-1 L
Hereford FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
AFC Telford	2-1 W	1-0 W
Darlington 1883	2-1 W	2-3 L
Spennymoor Town	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bedford Town (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worksop

WWLWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
22/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/04	Chorley England National League North	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
18/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	6-0	8-0	10	2	W
11/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

Bedford Town

DDDLLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
31/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Southport England National League North	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
18/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
15/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
08/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/04	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
11/04	Hereford FC England National League North	2-0	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worksop vs Bedford Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worksop win (43%). Probabilities: Worksop 43%, draw 27%, Bedford Town 29%.

How many goals are expected in Worksop vs Bedford Town?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Worksop 1.43 · Bedford Town 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Worksop vs Bedford Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.