Football · England National League North · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: South Shields vs Merthyr Town
Team pages: South Shields · Merthyr Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
South Shields2.1
Merthyr Town1.05
1X2
South Shields
Draw
Merthyr Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
South Shields
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Merthyr Town
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
South Shields
1–1
Merthyr Town
(2 last)
- South Shields4-1Merthyr Town
- Merthyr Town3-1South Shields
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Shields 1550 · Merthyr Town 1481
| South Shields | Draw | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Shields (rating 1550 vs 1481).
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Shields | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 8 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Shields 1–0–1 Merthyr Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England National League North | South Shields | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Merthyr Town |
| 11/11/25 England National League North | Merthyr Town | 3-1 HT 2-1 | South Shields |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | South Shields | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hebburn Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Oxford City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Hereford FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Worksop | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Harborough Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Merthyr Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Buxton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Kings Lynn Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Brackley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Spennymoor Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Chorley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Bedford Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Darlington 1883 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Southport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 20 | AFC Telford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Hednesford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 23 | Marine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Shields
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Morecambe England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Chorley England National League North |
0-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Dag & Red Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Gateshead UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Harrogate Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Kidderminster England National League North |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Buxton England National League North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Kidderminster England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Bedford Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 24 | 2 | D |
Merthyr Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Worcester City UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Bristol City U21 Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Yeovil UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 10/07 | Cambrian United UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Shields vs Merthyr Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a South Shields win (61%). Probabilities: South Shields 61%, draw 22%, Merthyr Town 17%.
How many goals are expected in South Shields vs Merthyr Town?
The model expects 3.15 goals (South Shields 2.1 · Merthyr Town 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in South Shields vs Merthyr Town?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.