Football · England National League North · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Worksop vs Oxford City

Team pages: Worksop · Oxford City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Worksop1.37

Oxford City1.37

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Worksop Draw Oxford City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Worksop 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWWLLL

Oxford City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWDWL

Head-to-head

Worksop 0–2 Oxford City (2 last)

Worksop1-2Oxford City
Oxford City2-0Worksop

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worksop 1518 · Oxford City 1548

	Worksop	Draw	Oxford City
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Oxford City: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worksop	Oxford City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	1.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35 ★
2	2.80 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +3’	2.25	3.20	2.80
17:00 +8’	2.50▲	3.20	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:07 +1’	2.60	3.35	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worksop 0–0–2 Oxford City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League North	Worksop	1-2 HT 0-0	Oxford City
08/11/25 England National League North	Oxford City	2-0 HT 1-0	Worksop

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hebburn Town	5	4	1	0	11	5	13
2	Chester	5	4	1	0	7	2	13
3	Macclesfield	5	4	1	0	7	3	13
4	Hereford FC	5	3	1	1	9	3	10
5	Oxford City	5	3	1	1	9	5	10
6	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
7	Scarborough Athletic	5	3	0	2	13	7	9
8	Harborough Town	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
9	Spalding United	5	2	1	2	5	3	7
10	Chorley	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
11	Buxton	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
12	Merthyr Town	5	1	3	1	7	6	6
13	Marine	5	2	0	3	6	5	6
14	Bedford Town	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
15	Worksop	5	2	0	3	5	9	6
16	Hednesford	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
17	Southport	5	1	2	2	9	12	5
18	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
18	Morecambe	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
20	Kings Lynn Town	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
21	Spennymoor Town	5	1	1	3	5	12	4
22	Darlington 1883	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
23	Radcliffe FC	5	1	0	4	3	10	3
24	AFC Telford	5	0	2	3	6	9	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worksop	Oxford City
Spalding United	1-3 L	1-0 W
Hereford FC	0-3 L	2-1 W
Darlington 1883	2-1 W	3-1 W
Peterborough Sports	8-0 W	2-0 W
Spennymoor Town	1-0 W	4-1 W
Buxton	1-2 L	2-3 L
Alfreton Town	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Oxford City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worksop

DLWWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
22/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/04	Chorley England National League North	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
18/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	6-0	8-0	10	2	W
11/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/04	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
03/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	2	D

Oxford City

WDWLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	10	W
18/04	Chester England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
14/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	2-1	5	9	W
11/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	0-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worksop vs Oxford City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worksop win (36%). Probabilities: Worksop 36%, draw 28%, Oxford City 36%.

How many goals are expected in Worksop vs Oxford City?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Worksop 1.37 · Oxford City 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Worksop vs Oxford City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.