Football · England National League North · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Telford vs Bedford Town

Team pages: AFC Telford · Bedford Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

AFC Telford1.59

Bedford Town1.08

1X2

49% 26% 26%

AFC Telford Draw Bedford Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Telford 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Bedford Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AFC Telford 3–1–1 Bedford Town (5 last)

AFC Telford2-2Bedford Town
Bedford Town3-1AFC Telford
AFC Telford6-2Bedford Town
Bedford Town2-3AFC Telford
AFC Telford3-1Bedford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Telford 1438 · Bedford Town 1498

	AFC Telford	Draw	Bedford Town
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bedford Town (rating 1438 vs 1498).
H2H favours AFC Telford: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Telford	Bedford Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.86
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.22 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +10’	1.80	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:09	1.86	4.22	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Telford 3–1–1 Bedford Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League North	AFC Telford	2-2 HT 1-1	Bedford Town
19/08/25 England National League North	Bedford Town	3-1 HT 1-0	AFC Telford
28/01/25 England Southern Premier League Central	AFC Telford	6-2 HT 4-1	Bedford Town
11/01/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bedford Town	2-3 HT 1-0	AFC Telford
22/09/18 England FA Cup Qualification	AFC Telford	3-1 HT 1-0	Bedford Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hebburn Town	5	4	1	0	11	5	13
2	Chester	5	4	1	0	7	2	13
3	Macclesfield	5	4	1	0	7	3	13
4	Hereford FC	5	3	1	1	9	3	10
5	Oxford City	5	3	1	1	9	5	10
6	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
7	Scarborough Athletic	5	3	0	2	13	7	9
8	Harborough Town	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
9	Spalding United	5	2	1	2	5	3	7
10	Chorley	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
11	Buxton	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
12	Merthyr Town	5	1	3	1	7	6	6
13	Marine	5	2	0	3	6	5	6
14	Bedford Town	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
15	Worksop	5	2	0	3	5	9	6
16	Hednesford	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
17	Southport	5	1	2	2	9	12	5
18	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
18	Morecambe	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
20	Kings Lynn Town	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
21	Spennymoor Town	5	1	1	3	5	12	4
22	Darlington 1883	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
23	Radcliffe FC	5	1	0	4	3	10	3
24	AFC Telford	5	0	2	3	6	9	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Telford	Bedford Town
Southport	0-2 L	1-4 L
Darlington 1883	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Telford (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Telford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
25/04	Southport England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
18/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
11/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/04	Kidderminster England National League North	1-2	1-2	4	10	L
03/04	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-2	9	7	L

Bedford Town

WWDDDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Southport England National League North	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
18/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
15/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
08/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/04	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
11/04	Hereford FC England National League North	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
06/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
03/04	Leamington England National League North	1-1	3-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Telford vs Bedford Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Telford win (49%). Probabilities: AFC Telford 49%, draw 26%, Bedford Town 26%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Telford vs Bedford Town?

The model expects 2.68 goals (AFC Telford 1.59 · Bedford Town 1.08), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Telford vs Bedford Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.