Football · England National League North · 31/08, 16:00
Prediction: Buxton vs Merthyr Town
Team pages: Buxton · Merthyr Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
Buxton2.13
Merthyr Town1.3
1X2
Buxton
Draw
Merthyr Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Buxton
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Merthyr Town
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Buxton
2–1
Merthyr Town
(3 last)
- Merthyr Town1-3Buxton
- Buxton1-2Merthyr Town
- Buxton2-0Merthyr Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Buxton 1555 · Merthyr Town 1479
| Buxton | Draw | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buxton (rating 1555 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Buxton: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Buxton | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Buxton 2–0–1 Merthyr Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 England National League North | Merthyr Town | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Buxton |
| 29/11/25 England National League North | Buxton | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Merthyr Town |
| 05/11/22 England FA Cup | Buxton | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Merthyr Town |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Chester | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Hereford FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Oxford City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | South Shields | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Scarborough Athletic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Harborough Town | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | Spalding United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Chorley | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Buxton | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Marine | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Bedford Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 15 | Worksop | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 16 | Hednesford | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| 17 | Southport | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| 18 | Brackley | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 18 | Morecambe | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Kings Lynn Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 21 | Spennymoor Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 23 | Radcliffe FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | AFC Telford | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Buxton | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Hereford FC | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| South Shields | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Scarborough Athletic | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Buxton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Buxton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Oxford City England National League North |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/08 | Bedford Town England National League North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Southport England National League North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Hereford FC England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | South Shields England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
0-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Leamington England National League North |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | Alfreton Town England National League North |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
Merthyr Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Chorley England National League North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | South Shields England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/08 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Marine England National League North |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 8 | L |
| 06/04 | Hereford FC England National League North |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Buxton win (55%). Probabilities: Buxton 55%, draw 22%, Merthyr Town 22%.
How many goals are expected in Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
The model expects 3.43 goals (Buxton 2.13 · Merthyr Town 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.