Football · England National League · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Southend vs Scunthorpe
Team pages: Southend · Scunthorpe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Southend1.59
Scunthorpe1.04
1X2
Southend
Draw
Scunthorpe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Southend
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Scunthorpe
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southend
2–1–3
Scunthorpe
(6 last)
- Scunthorpe1-0Southend
- Scunthorpe1-0Southend
- Southend0-2Scunthorpe
- Scunthorpe1-3Southend
- Southend3-0Scunthorpe
- Scunthorpe1-1Southend
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southend 1487 · Scunthorpe 1527
| Southend | Draw | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Scunthorpe (rating 1487 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Scunthorpe: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southend | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/56/22% | 33/22/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.8 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southend 2–1–3 Scunthorpe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 England National League | Scunthorpe | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Southend |
| 07/02/26 England National League | Scunthorpe | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Southend |
| 27/09/25 England National League | Southend | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Scunthorpe |
| 22/04/23 England National League | Scunthorpe | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Southend |
| 22/10/22 England National League | Southend | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Scunthorpe |
| 20/03/21 England League 2 | Scunthorpe | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Southend |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrogate Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | AFC Hornchurch | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Southend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Hartlepool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Forest Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Worthing | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Boreham Wood | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Fylde | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Wealdstone | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Scunthorpe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Yeovil | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Carlisle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Halifax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Gateshead | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Altrincham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Barrow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Kidderminster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Woking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Aveley UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Leyton Orient UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 22/07 | Northampton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | West Ham UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 14/07 | Cambridge Utd Club Friendly List |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wealdstone England FA Trophy |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 28/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Hartlepool England National League |
1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
Scunthorpe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | North Ferriby UK Friendlies |
4-1 | 6-3 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Buxton UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Appleby Frodingham FC Club Friendly List |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Rochdale England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Southend England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 11/04 | Brackley England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Gateshead England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southend vs Scunthorpe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southend win (49%). Probabilities: Southend 49%, draw 26%, Scunthorpe 24%.
How many goals are expected in Southend vs Scunthorpe?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Southend 1.59 · Scunthorpe 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Southend vs Scunthorpe?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.