Football · England National League · 22/08, 13:30

Prediction: Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch

Team pages: Carlisle · AFC Hornchurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Carlisle1.81

AFC Hornchurch1.13

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Carlisle Draw AFC Hornchurch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Carlisle 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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AFC Hornchurch 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carlisle 1507 · AFC Hornchurch 1570

	Carlisle	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Hornchurch (rating 1507 vs 1570).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carlisle	AFC Hornchurch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +3’	1.70	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Harrogate Town	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	AFC Hornchurch	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Sutton Utd	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Southend	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Hartlepool	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
6	Forest Green	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
7	Boreham Wood	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
8	AFC Fylde	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
9	Gateshead	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	Boston Utd	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
11	Worthing	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
12	Eastleigh	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Aldershot	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
14	Kidderminster	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
15	Yeovil	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
16	Tamworth	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
17	Carlisle	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
18	Scunthorpe	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Wealdstone	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
20	Halifax	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
21	Altrincham	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
21	Barrow	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
23	Solihull Moors	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
24	Woking	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Carlisle

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
08/08	Worthing England National League	1-0	2-3	8	2	L
28/07	Salford City UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
21/07	Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies	4-1	4-2	7	0	W
17/07	Workington Club Friendly List	0-4	0-5	–	–	L
03/05	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	1-1	7	9	D
25/04	Brackley England National League	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
18/04	Truro City England National League	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
11/04	Sutton Utd England National League	3-0	3-0	6	7	W
06/04	Morecambe England National League	0-1	2-2	4	4	D

AFC Hornchurch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/08	Kidderminster England National League	3-0	3-0	4	4	W
28/07	Enfield Town UK Friendlies	0-2	2-4	15	0	L
21/07	Leyton Orient Club Friendly List	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Redbridge UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
07/07	Dag & Red UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
09/05	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
02/05	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
25/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/04	Chippenham Town England National League South	0-0	3-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlisle win (53%). Probabilities: Carlisle 53%, draw 24%, AFC Hornchurch 23%.

How many goals are expected in Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Carlisle 1.81 · AFC Hornchurch 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.