Football · England National League · 22/08, 13:30

Prediction: Yeovil vs Gateshead

Team pages: Yeovil · Gateshead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Yeovil1.89

Gateshead1.37

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Yeovil Draw Gateshead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Yeovil 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDLDDD

Gateshead 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Yeovil 1–1–4 Gateshead (6 last)

Gateshead2-1Yeovil
Yeovil3-4Gateshead
Yeovil0-0Gateshead
Gateshead3-1Yeovil
Yeovil3-2Gateshead
Gateshead4-0Yeovil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yeovil 1456 · Gateshead 1486

	Yeovil	Draw	Gateshead
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gateshead: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yeovil	Gateshead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +1’	1.90	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +4’	1.96	3.49	3.68
17:26 +5’	2.07▲	3.41▼	3.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yeovil 1–1–4 Gateshead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League	Gateshead	2-1 HT 0-0	Yeovil
25/08/25 England National League	Yeovil	3-4 HT 3-0	Gateshead
17/01/25 England National League	Yeovil	0-0 HT 0-0	Gateshead
24/08/24 England National League	Gateshead	3-1 HT 2-1	Yeovil
04/11/23 England FA Cup	Yeovil	3-2 HT 2-0	Gateshead
04/04/23 England National League	Gateshead	4-0 HT 2-0	Yeovil

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Harrogate Town	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	AFC Hornchurch	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Sutton Utd	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Southend	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Hartlepool	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
6	Forest Green	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
7	Boreham Wood	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
8	AFC Fylde	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
9	Gateshead	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	Boston Utd	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
11	Worthing	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
12	Eastleigh	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Aldershot	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
14	Kidderminster	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
15	Yeovil	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
16	Tamworth	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
17	Carlisle	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
18	Scunthorpe	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Wealdstone	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
20	Halifax	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
21	Altrincham	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
21	Barrow	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
23	Solihull Moors	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
24	Woking	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Yeovil

LDLLWDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Carlisle England National League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
28/07	Farnham UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
25/07	Wycombe Club Friendly List	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
14/07	Merthyr Town UK Friendlies	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
11/07	Melksham Town Club Friendly List	3-1	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Solihull Moors England National League	1-4	1-4	6	4	L
18/04	York England National League	0-2	0-3	2	5	L
11/04	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
06/04	Eastleigh England National League	0-1	1-2	3	2	L

Gateshead

LLWDDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Woking England National League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
08/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
01/08	Spennymoor Town Club Friendly List	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
28/07	South Shields UK Friendlies	0-3	1-4	3	3	L
25/07	Newcastle Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
14/07	Hebburn Town UK Friendlies	1-0	3-3	3	0	D
11/07	Heaton Stannington UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	5	0	D
07/07	Blyth Town FC Club Friendly List	4-0	6-0	–	–	W
25/04	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-3	6	0	L
18/04	Woking England National League	0-1	0-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yeovil vs Gateshead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yeovil win (48%). Probabilities: Yeovil 48%, draw 25%, Gateshead 26%.

How many goals are expected in Yeovil vs Gateshead?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Yeovil 1.89 · Gateshead 1.37), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Yeovil vs Gateshead?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.