Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 07/11, 14:30

Prediction: Staphorst vs VV Eemdijk

Team pages: Staphorst · VV Eemdijk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Staphorst2.11

VV Eemdijk1.64

1X2

48% 22% 30%

Staphorst Draw VV Eemdijk

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Staphorst 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLWWL

VV Eemdijk 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDWW

Head-to-head

Staphorst 1–1 VV Eemdijk (2 last)

Staphorst1-2VV Eemdijk
VV Eemdijk2-4Staphorst

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Staphorst 1433 · VV Eemdijk 1486

	Staphorst	Draw	VV Eemdijk
Our model	48%	23%	29%
Market	49%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VV Eemdijk (rating 1433 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Staphorst	VV Eemdijk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.6 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 4.7	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.7 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.88
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.21 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +6’	1.75	4.33	3.20
05:49 +14’	1.85▲	4.20▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:47 +54’	1.87	3.73	3.16
14:02 +18’	1.88▲	3.79▲	3.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Staphorst 1–0–1 VV Eemdijk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Staphorst	1-2 HT 0-1	VV Eemdijk
25/10/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Eemdijk	2-4 HT 1-3	Staphorst

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VV Scherpenzeel	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
2	Harkemase Boys	11	8	2	1	24	14	26
3	ACV Assen	11	7	3	1	27	11	24
4	TEC	11	7	2	2	34	19	23
5	Excelsior '31	11	7	1	3	28	13	22
6	Genemuiden	11	7	1	3	24	17	22
7	Sportlust '46	11	5	4	2	19	17	19
8	Purmersteijn	11	5	3	3	21	17	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	11	5	2	4	24	21	17
10	ADO '20	11	4	2	5	21	23	14
11	Hoogeveen	11	4	1	6	24	25	13
12	USV Hercules	11	4	1	6	16	23	13
13	VV Eemdijk	11	4	1	6	19	30	13
14	DVS'33 Ermelo	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
15	Staphorst	12	2	3	7	18	28	9
16	DOVO	11	1	3	7	13	26	6
17	HVV Hollandia	10	1	2	7	18	29	5
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	11	0	1	10	12	32	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Staphorst	VV Eemdijk
USV Hercules	1-4 L	2-0 W
DVS'33 Ermelo	2-1 W	2-2 D
TEC	0-3 L	2-7 L
Sparta Nijkerk	2-3 L	0-4 L
ACV Assen	2-3 L	1-5 L
Harkemase Boys	1-1 D	1-2 L
Genemuiden	1-2 L	1-3 L
ADO '20	0-0 D	4-1 W
Excelsior '31	2-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Staphorst (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Staphorst

LDLDLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
17/10	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-2	–	–	W
03/10	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
26/09	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/09	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
05/09	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	2-4	3	1	L

VV Eemdijk

LWLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
17/10	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-4	2-7	–	–	L
19/09	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	1-5	3	3	L
05/09	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Staphorst vs VV Eemdijk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Staphorst win (48%). Probabilities: Staphorst 48%, draw 22%, VV Eemdijk 30%.

How many goals are expected in Staphorst vs VV Eemdijk?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Staphorst 2.11 · VV Eemdijk 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Staphorst vs VV Eemdijk?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.