Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 15/11, 14:00

Prediction: HVV Hollandia vs Hoogeveen

Team pages: HVV Hollandia · Hoogeveen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

HVV Hollandia2.26

Hoogeveen2.08

1X2

43% 21% 36%

HVV Hollandia Draw Hoogeveen

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

HVV Hollandia 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Hoogeveen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HVV Hollandia 1421 · Hoogeveen 1470

	HVV Hollandia	Draw	Hoogeveen
Our model	43%	21%	36%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hoogeveen (rating 1421 vs 1470).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HVV Hollandia	Hoogeveen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3.1	2.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.7	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +35’	2.10	4.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ACV Assen	12	8	3	1	30	11	27
2	VV Scherpenzeel	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
3	Harkemase Boys	12	8	2	2	25	16	26
4	TEC	12	7	3	2	36	21	24
5	Excelsior '31	12	7	1	4	28	16	22
6	Genemuiden	12	7	1	4	24	18	22
7	Sportlust '46	12	6	4	2	20	17	22
8	Purmersteijn	12	6	3	3	25	18	21
9	Sparta Nijkerk	12	5	3	4	26	23	18
10	ADO '20	12	5	2	5	23	24	17
11	USV Hercules	12	5	1	6	19	25	16
12	Hoogeveen	12	4	2	6	26	27	14
13	VV Eemdijk	11	4	1	6	19	30	13
14	DVS'33 Ermelo	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
15	Staphorst	12	2	3	7	18	28	9
16	DOVO	12	1	4	7	15	28	7
17	HVV Hollandia	11	1	2	8	19	33	5
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	12	0	1	11	14	35	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HVV Hollandia	Hoogeveen
Purmersteijn	1-4 L	1-3 L
Sportlust '46	2-4 L	2-2 D
TEC	4-5 L	2-2 D
Sparta Nijkerk	5-5 D	0-2 L
ACV Assen	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hoogeveen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HVV Hollandia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-4	6	10	L
25/10	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
17/10	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	2-4	–	–	L
27/09	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	6	8	L
19/09	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
06/09	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	4-5	–	–	L
29/08	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-2	5-5	–	–	D
22/08	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Hoogeveen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/10	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
10/10	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	0	2	L
03/10	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	5-3	1	3	W
27/09	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	5-1	5	2	W
19/09	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
12/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HVV Hollandia vs Hoogeveen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HVV Hollandia win (43%). Probabilities: HVV Hollandia 43%, draw 21%, Hoogeveen 36%.

How many goals are expected in HVV Hollandia vs Hoogeveen?

The model expects 4.33 goals (HVV Hollandia 2.26 · Hoogeveen 2.08), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HVV Hollandia vs Hoogeveen?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.