Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: VVSB vs VV Gemert

Team pages: VVSB · VV Gemert

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

VVSB1.6

VV Gemert1.53

1X2

40% 24% 37%

VVSB Draw VV Gemert

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

VVSB 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLW

VV Gemert 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWLLWW

Head-to-head

VVSB 3–1–1 VV Gemert (5 last)

VV Gemert0-1VVSB
VVSB0-1VV Gemert
VVSB2-2VV Gemert
VV Gemert0-1VVSB
VVSB5-2VV Gemert

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VVSB 1481 · VV Gemert 1528

	VVSB	Draw	VV Gemert
Our model	39%	26%	36%
Market	41%	22%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VV Gemert (rating 1481 vs 1528).
H2H favours VVSB: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VVSB	VV Gemert
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X4.10

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +8’	2.20	4.10	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VVSB 3–1–1 VV Gemert

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	0-1 HT 0-0	VVSB
29/11/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VVSB	0-1 HT 0-1	VV Gemert
08/02/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VVSB	2-2 HT 0-0	VV Gemert
15/09/24 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	0-1 HT 0-0	VVSB
23/10/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VVSB	5-2 HT 1-0	VV Gemert

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lisse	12	10	1	1	30	8	31
2	Noordwijk	12	10	1	1	26	4	31
3	Excelsior Maassluis	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
4	Rijnvogels	12	7	3	2	32	16	24
5	Zwaluwen	12	7	1	4	16	16	22
6	SV Poortugaal	12	7	0	5	20	16	21
7	RKSV UDI '19	12	6	2	4	22	13	20
8	VV Goes	12	5	2	5	25	29	17
9	VV Gemert	11	4	4	3	17	18	16
10	VV Dongen	12	5	1	6	24	26	16
11	Blauw Geel '38	12	4	3	5	16	17	15
12	TOGB	12	3	3	6	19	26	12
13	Roosendaal	11	3	2	6	21	26	11
14	VV UNA	12	2	5	5	15	21	11
15	VVSB	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
16	Groene Ster	12	2	3	7	15	32	9
17	Achilles Veen	12	2	0	10	10	30	6
18	EVV Echt	12	0	3	9	11	25	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VVSB	VV Gemert
Excelsior Maassluis	2-3 L	3-1 W
Achilles Veen	2-1 W	2-0 W
Noordwijk	0-2 L	0-4 L
FC Lisse	1-2 L	0-2 L
Groene Ster	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: VV Gemert (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VVSB

DLLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
24/10	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-4	6	4	L
17/10	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
10/10	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
03/10	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
05/09	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	3-3	3	2	D

VV Gemert

DLDWDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
17/10	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/10	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
04/10	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/09	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
20/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
12/09	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
23/08	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VVSB vs VV Gemert?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VVSB win (40%). Probabilities: VVSB 40%, draw 24%, VV Gemert 37%.

How many goals are expected in VVSB vs VV Gemert?

The model expects 3.12 goals (VVSB 1.6 · VV Gemert 1.53), with a 59% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VVSB vs VV Gemert?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.