Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Almere City Reserves vs De Treffers

Team pages: Almere City Reserves · De Treffers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

Almere City Reserves1.58

De Treffers2.46

1X2

23% 21% 56%

Almere City Reserves Draw De Treffers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLWW

De Treffers 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Almere City Reserves 2–2–2 De Treffers (6 last)

Almere City Reserves2-3De Treffers
De Treffers1-1Almere City Reserves
De Treffers0-3Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves3-3De Treffers
Almere City Reserves1-3De Treffers
De Treffers0-2Almere City Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City Reserves 1488 · De Treffers 1579

	Almere City Reserves	Draw	De Treffers
Our model	23%	20%	56%
Market	23%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours De Treffers (rating 1488 vs 1579).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City Reserves	De Treffers
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.2	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	3.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:35 +59’	3.90	4.20	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City Reserves 2–2–2 De Treffers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	2-3 HT 1-1	De Treffers
11/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	1-1 HT 1-1	Almere City Reserves
09/02/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	0-3 HT 0-1	Almere City Reserves
14/09/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	3-3 HT 1-1	De Treffers
04/05/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	1-3 HT 1-3	De Treffers
25/11/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	0-2 HT 0-1	Almere City Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	9	8	0	1	28	6	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	6	2	1	25	12	20
3	De Treffers	9	5	3	1	24	9	18
4	IJsselmeervogels	9	5	1	3	12	8	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	5	0	4	21	18	15
6	HHC Hardenberg	9	4	3	2	18	15	15
7	Barendrecht	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
8	Amsterdamsche FC	9	4	1	4	14	14	13
9	Spakenburg	9	4	1	4	11	14	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	9	3	3	3	24	19	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	3	3	3	18	19	12
12	Katwijk	9	3	2	4	11	19	11
13	Almere City Reserves	9	3	1	5	19	18	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	3	1	5	16	26	10
15	HSV Hoek	9	2	3	4	11	15	9
16	Kloetinge	9	1	4	4	14	24	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	1	3	5	11	18	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	0	1	8	9	31	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City Reserves	De Treffers
Barendrecht	1-4 L	4-0 W
HSV Hoek	2-2 D	1-3 L
Spakenburg	0-3 L	5-0 W
Katwijk	2-3 L	2-1 W
Koninklijke HFC	1-2 L	1-1 D
HHC Hardenberg	1-2 L	2-2 D
Rijnsburgse Boys	4-0 W	1-1 D
GVVV Veenendaal	5-4 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: De Treffers (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	10	4	W
03/10	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
26/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-4	0	8	L
19/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
29/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
23/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	5-4	6	1	W

De Treffers

DWWDDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-0	4-0	10	2	W
03/10	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
26/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
19/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
12/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
05/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
29/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
23/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
23/05	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City Reserves vs De Treffers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an De Treffers win (56%). Probabilities: Almere City Reserves 23%, draw 21%, De Treffers 56%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City Reserves vs De Treffers?

The model expects 4.04 goals (Almere City Reserves 1.58 · De Treffers 2.46), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City Reserves vs De Treffers?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.