Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 24/10, 15:15

Prediction: Amsterdamsche FC vs Almere City Reserves

Team pages: Amsterdamsche FC · Almere City Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Amsterdamsche FC1.85

Almere City Reserves1.6

1X2

44% 24% 33%

Amsterdamsche FC Draw Almere City Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Amsterdamsche FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Almere City Reserves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Amsterdamsche FC 4–1–1 Almere City Reserves (6 last)

Amsterdamsche FC0-0Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves2-1Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC2-0Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves0-2Amsterdamsche FC
Almere City Reserves1-5Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC4-1Almere City Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amsterdamsche FC 1515 · Almere City Reserves 1477

	Amsterdamsche FC	Draw	Almere City Reserves
Our model	43%	24%	33%
Market	44%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Amsterdamsche FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amsterdamsche FC	Almere City Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.90

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.50 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +20’	2.20	3.90	2.50
16:00 +5’	2.05▼	3.90	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +23’	2.03	3.82	2.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Amsterdamsche FC 4–1–1 Almere City Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Almere City Reserves
13/09/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	2-1 HT 1-1	Amsterdamsche FC
19/04/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Almere City Reserves
16/11/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	0-2 HT 0-0	Amsterdamsche FC
13/01/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	1-5 HT 0-2	Amsterdamsche FC
19/08/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	4-1 HT 2-0	Almere City Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	10	8	1	1	29	7	25
2	De Treffers	10	6	3	1	27	11	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	6	3	1	25	12	21
4	IJsselmeervogels	10	6	1	3	14	9	19
5	HHC Hardenberg	10	5	3	2	20	16	18
6	Barendrecht	10	5	2	3	19	17	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	5	0	5	22	20	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	4	3	3	20	20	15
9	Spakenburg	10	4	2	4	12	15	14
10	Amsterdamsche FC	10	4	1	5	15	18	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	4	1	5	17	26	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	10	3	3	4	25	21	12
13	Katwijk	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
14	Almere City Reserves	10	3	1	6	21	21	10
15	HSV Hoek	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	2	3	5	13	19	9
17	Kloetinge	10	1	4	5	15	26	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	0	1	9	9	32	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amsterdamsche FC	Almere City Reserves
Barendrecht	1-4 L	1-4 L
HSV Hoek	2-0 W	2-2 D
Spakenburg	1-2 L	0-3 L
Katwijk	0-1 L	2-3 L
Koninklijke HFC	3-1 W	1-2 L
HHC Hardenberg	2-2 D	1-2 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	0-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Amsterdamsche FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amsterdamsche FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-4	6	7	L
10/10	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
03/10	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
05/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	1	8	L
29/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
22/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L

Almere City Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	1	L
10/10	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	10	4	W
03/10	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
26/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-4	0	8	L
19/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
29/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amsterdamsche FC vs Almere City Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Amsterdamsche FC win (44%). Probabilities: Amsterdamsche FC 44%, draw 24%, Almere City Reserves 33%.

How many goals are expected in Amsterdamsche FC vs Almere City Reserves?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Amsterdamsche FC 1.85 · Almere City Reserves 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Amsterdamsche FC vs Almere City Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.