Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: IJsselmeervogels vs Spakenburg

Team pages: IJsselmeervogels · Spakenburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

IJsselmeervogels1.41

Spakenburg1.26

1X2

41% 26% 33%

IJsselmeervogels Draw Spakenburg

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

IJsselmeervogels 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Spakenburg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

IJsselmeervogels 1–3–2 Spakenburg (6 last)

IJsselmeervogels0-2Spakenburg
Spakenburg1-0IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels4-1Spakenburg
Spakenburg1-1IJsselmeervogels
Spakenburg1-1IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels2-2Spakenburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IJsselmeervogels 1508 · Spakenburg 1516

	IJsselmeervogels	Draw	Spakenburg
Our model	39%	28%	32%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spakenburg: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IJsselmeervogels	Spakenburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	1.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.75

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.44 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +14’	2.15	3.75	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +43’	2.44	3.56	2.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IJsselmeervogels 1–3–2 Spakenburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	0-2 HT 0-1	Spakenburg
11/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-0 HT 1-0	IJsselmeervogels
22/04/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	4-1 HT 0-1	Spakenburg
05/11/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-1 HT 0-1	IJsselmeervogels
14/05/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-1	IJsselmeervogels
08/03/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	2-2 HT 1-1	Spakenburg

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	10	8	1	1	29	7	25
2	De Treffers	10	6	3	1	27	11	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	6	3	1	25	12	21
4	IJsselmeervogels	10	6	1	3	14	9	19
5	HHC Hardenberg	10	5	3	2	20	16	18
6	Barendrecht	10	5	2	3	19	17	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	5	0	5	22	20	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	4	3	3	20	20	15
9	Spakenburg	10	4	2	4	12	15	14
10	Amsterdamsche FC	10	4	1	5	15	18	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	4	1	5	17	26	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	10	3	3	4	25	21	12
13	Katwijk	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
14	Almere City Reserves	10	3	1	6	21	21	10
15	HSV Hoek	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	2	3	5	13	19	9
17	Kloetinge	10	1	4	5	15	26	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	0	1	9	9	32	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IJsselmeervogels	Spakenburg
Katwijk	2-1 W	1-0 W
RKAV Volendam	1-1 D	1-2 L
Quick Boys	0-1 L	1-1 D
Kozakken Boys	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IJsselmeervogels (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IJsselmeervogels

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/10	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
03/10	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-2	14	2	L
26/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	1	L
05/09	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
29/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
15/08	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	2	1	W

Spakenburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
03/10	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-3	0-5	4	2	L
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
05/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IJsselmeervogels vs Spakenburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IJsselmeervogels win (41%). Probabilities: IJsselmeervogels 41%, draw 26%, Spakenburg 33%.

How many goals are expected in IJsselmeervogels vs Spakenburg?

The model expects 2.67 goals (IJsselmeervogels 1.41 · Spakenburg 1.26), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IJsselmeervogels vs Spakenburg?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.