Prediction: RFS vs FK Jelgava
| RFS | Draw | FK Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| Market | 82% | 12% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1597 vs 1497).
- H2H favours RFS: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RFS | FK Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.5 | 3.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS 4–1–1 FK Jelgava
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 4-0 HT 1-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 08/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-1 | RFS |
| 13/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 1-4 HT 0-3 | FK Jelgava |
| 12/07/25 Latvia Cup | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RFS |
| 26/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RFS |
| 05/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 2-2 HT 0-0 | RFS |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RFS | FK Jelgava |
|---|---|---|
| FK Auda | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| BFC Daugavpils | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Liepaja | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Ogre United | 6-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Riga FC | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| SC Grobinas | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| SK Super Nova | 2-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Tukums 2000 | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: RFS (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RFS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 13/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
FK Jelgava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RFS vs FK Jelgava?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS win (81%). Probabilities: RFS 81%, draw 13%, FK Jelgava 6%.
How many goals are expected in RFS vs FK Jelgava?
The model expects 3.1 goals (RFS 2.55 · FK Jelgava 0.55), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in RFS vs FK Jelgava?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.