Football · Latvia Cup · 12/07, 17:00
Prediction: Valmiera FC vs Ogre United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.48Total
Valmiera FC1.74
Ogre United1.74
1X2
Valmiera FC
Draw
Ogre United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Valmiera FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Ogre United
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valmiera FC
1–0
Ogre United
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valmiera FC 1587 · Ogre United 1469
| Valmiera FC | Draw | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Market | 39% | 22% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1587 vs 1469).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valmiera FC | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.7 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 1–0–0 Ogre United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/25 Latvia Cup | Valmiera FC | 4-3 HT 1-0 | Ogre United |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valmiera FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia Cup |
3-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Skanstes SK Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 15 | 3 | W |
Ogre United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 25/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs Ogre United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Valmiera FC win (38%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 38%, draw 23%, Ogre United 38%.
How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs Ogre United?
The model expects 3.48 goals (Valmiera FC 1.74 · Ogre United 1.74), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs Ogre United?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.