Football · Latvia Cup · 12/07, 16:00
Prediction: Marupes SC vs SC Grobinas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Marupes SC1.15
SC Grobinas1.64
1X2
Marupes SC
Draw
SC Grobinas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Marupes SC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
SC Grobinas
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marupes SC 1512 · SC Grobinas 1462
| Marupes SC | Draw | SC Grobinas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marupes SC (rating 1512 vs 1462).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marupes SC | SC Grobinas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.3 | 1.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marupes SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | FK Aliance Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Jfc Jelgava Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
SC Grobinas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 9 | D |
| 20/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marupes SC vs SC Grobinas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SC Grobinas win (49%). Probabilities: Marupes SC 27%, draw 24%, SC Grobinas 49%.
How many goals are expected in Marupes SC vs SC Grobinas?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Marupes SC 1.15 · SC Grobinas 1.64), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Marupes SC vs SC Grobinas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.