Football · Latvia Cup · 11/07, 17:00
Prediction: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners1.47
BFC Daugavpils1.57
1X2
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Draw
BFC Daugavpils
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
BFC Daugavpils
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1607 · BFC Daugavpils 1501
| FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | Draw | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 37% | 22% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1607 vs 1501).
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.4 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | JDFS Alberts Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Rfk/Rfs Latvia Cup |
2-0 | 11-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
BFC Daugavpils
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
According to our model, the most likely result is an BFC Daugavpils win (40%). Probabilities: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 36%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 40%.
How many goals are expected in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model expects 3.04 goals (FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1.47 · BFC Daugavpils 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.