Football · England League 2 · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Colchester vs Crewe
Team pages: Colchester · Crewe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Colchester1.33
Crewe1.04
1X2
Colchester
Draw
Crewe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Colchester
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Crewe
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Colchester
0–4–2
Crewe
(6 last)
- Crewe1-0Colchester
- Colchester1-1Crewe
- Colchester0-0Crewe
- Crewe0-0Colchester
- Colchester1-1Crewe
- Crewe2-1Colchester
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colchester 1448 · Crewe 1505
| Colchester | Draw | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crewe (rating 1448 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Crewe: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchester | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.1 | 2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchester 0–4–2 Crewe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England League 2 | Crewe | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Colchester |
| 06/09/25 England League 2 | Colchester | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Crewe |
| 18/04/25 England League 2 | Colchester | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Crewe |
| 20/12/24 England League 2 | Crewe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Colchester |
| 27/04/24 England League 2 | Colchester | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Crewe |
| 23/09/23 England League 2 | Crewe | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Colchester |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Swindon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Barnet | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Walsall | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Crewe | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 9 | York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Oldham | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Colchester | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Gillingham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Northampton | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Salford City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Exeter | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chesterfield | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Newport County | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 23 | Shrewsbury | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
Crewe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | York England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 02/05 | Cambridge Utd England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchester vs Crewe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Colchester win (43%). Probabilities: Colchester 43%, draw 29%, Crewe 29%.
How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Crewe?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Colchester 1.33 · Crewe 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Crewe?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.