Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Salford City vs Swindon
Team pages: Salford City · Swindon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.61Total
Salford City2.3
Swindon1.31
1X2
Salford City
Draw
Swindon
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Salford City
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Swindon
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Salford City
4–2–0
Swindon
(6 last)
- Salford City3-2Swindon
- Swindon2-3Salford City
- Salford City3-2Swindon
- Swindon2-2Salford City
- Salford City2-1Swindon
- Swindon1-1Salford City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Salford City 1519 · Swindon 1477
| Salford City | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salford City (rating 1519 vs 1477).
- H2H favours Salford City: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Salford City | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.8 | 1.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Salford City 4–2–0 Swindon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 England FA Cup | Salford City | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Swindon |
| 17/01/26 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Salford City |
| 20/09/25 England League 2 | Salford City | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Swindon |
| 04/03/25 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Salford City |
| 22/10/24 England League 2 | Salford City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Swindon |
| 10/02/24 England League 2 | Swindon | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Salford City |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Walsall | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Crewe | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Swindon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Colchester | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Oldham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Salford City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Northampton | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Newport County | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Exeter | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Salford City | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Chesterfield | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Grimsby | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Salford City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Rotherham England League 2 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Barnet England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Grimsby England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | York England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 10/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Salford City vs Swindon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Salford City win (58%). Probabilities: Salford City 58%, draw 22%, Swindon 20%.
How many goals are expected in Salford City vs Swindon?
The model expects 3.61 goals (Salford City 2.3 · Swindon 1.31), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Swindon?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.