Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Colchester vs Cheltenham
Team pages: Colchester · Cheltenham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Colchester1.7
Cheltenham1.15
1X2
Colchester
Draw
Cheltenham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Colchester
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Cheltenham
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Colchester
3–3
Cheltenham
(6 last)
- Cheltenham1-4Colchester
- Colchester2-0Cheltenham
- Cheltenham0-1Colchester
- Cheltenham2-1Colchester
- Colchester1-2Cheltenham
- Cheltenham1-0Colchester
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colchester 1472 · Cheltenham 1485
| Colchester | Draw | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchester | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.2 | 2.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchester 3–0–3 Cheltenham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 England League 2 | Cheltenham | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Colchester |
| 29/11/25 England League 2 | Colchester | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cheltenham |
| 08/03/25 England League 2 | Cheltenham | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Colchester |
| 14/01/25 England EFL Trophy | Cheltenham | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Colchester |
| 19/10/24 England League 2 | Colchester | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Cheltenham |
| 24/04/21 England League 2 | Cheltenham | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Colchester |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Walsall | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Crewe | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Swindon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Colchester | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Oldham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Salford City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Northampton | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Newport County | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Exeter | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Colchester | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Bristol Rovers | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Cheltenham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/09 | York England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Barnet England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/04 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchester vs Cheltenham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Colchester win (49%). Probabilities: Colchester 49%, draw 26%, Cheltenham 25%.
How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Cheltenham?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Colchester 1.7 · Cheltenham 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Cheltenham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.